And some people might not even become premiums (or players at all) if the ex-vip advantages are not available. What is the payment weight of one VIP vs one premium? How does it evolve with account age?
More VIPs are better, but it is hard to say how many premium losses can tolerated for one VIP gain.
As I already said, in the quote you added, it's possible that some will never sub without permanent unlocks, so they lose out on those one-off payments. They could also be losing out on regular payments, because so much is unlocked. We don't know the numbers, you're right, so it could be swinging either way. I can only present if from my own perspective.
Sometimes, no matter how hard you look, there is no best light.