Stream confirmed ssg not revealing drop rate or percent chance of items in loot boxes? True or not?

[Macdui]

One of the more recent changes in the gold spammers has been the specific items under cutting the store. E.g. the black steel keys, aria of the valar etc.

Who is responsible for selling to these gold spammer? Ah that would be SSG...

Are the gold spammers the only people actually buying these things from the store? Is it this that skews the "metrics"?

SSG must be continuing because LP sales are up or maybe sales are down so they think they need to push us further to get them up?

Right now if they put a Raid item level Heavy Shield in the lotro market I'd probably buy it. I'll still curse the numpty who failed to put shield crafting in the craft update though.
But I'd rather not open 200 Gorgoroth loot boxes and still fail to get a gold signet to barter, is it even in the loot table, seem that Cordovan doesn't think it unfair not to say.

Mac

[Andy_X]

It's not so much a loot box thing as it is a loot thing: We've never really given exact drop rates for items that have a chance to appear, regardless of their source.

One big difference though, we can buy the keys for these loot boxes in the store for money. We can't exactly buy each chest at the end of each instance or each drop from mobs in the store for money. As customers paying for an item, keys (paying for the gambling chance), we deserve to know what the loot table is and the chance for each reward. Just like lotteries publish their tables of possible rewards and chance for each reward. Or even other manufacturers list what's in a package you buy. Even specifying if batteries are included or not.

But I'm sure some fanboy will come up with some excuse and defence for ssg so they don't even have to come up with one themselves.

I so hope new laws come into effect but I don't hold my breath. Politicians represent the big companies interests these days and not the peoples interests anymore. Exept when they pretend to, just before an election to get our votes. Then after the election it's back to business as usual.

[Yarbro]

I would be more interested to know how many hours of play per key drop (outside of any re-playable content such as raids).

I havent had a single key, other than as a quest reward, in many months.

[Macdui]

One big difference though, we can buy the keys for these loot boxes in the store for money. We can't exactly buy each chest at the end of each instance or each drop from mobs in the store for money. As customers paying for an item, keys (paying for the gambling chance), we deserve to know what the loot table is and the chance for each reward. Just like lotteries publish their tables of possible rewards and chance for each reward. Or even other manufacturers list what's in a package you buy. Even specifying if batteries are included or not.

But I'm sure some fanboy will come up with some excuse and defence for ssg so they don't even have to come up with one themselves.

I so hope new laws come into effect but I don't hold my breath. Politicians represent the big companies interests these days and not the peoples interests anymore. Exept when they pretend to, just before an election to get our votes. Then after the election it's back to business as usual.

Some years ago Turbine were advertising for a "Big Data" job. There's the potential that the work was done and they now have loot algorithms in play that could dynamically change the chance for a drop. It would partially explain the reports of loot box drops with higher than intended item levels than could have been obtained within the game, not WAI.

If the toon next to you opened a box and got an uber drop it may well affect your chances of getting the same drop milliseconds later. Certainly if news of an uber drop spreads it makes others more likely to open their boxes, human nature. Look up Nobel Prize for Economics 2017 on your chosen search engine... it turns out we are all mugs to be manipulated.

Even with the one armed bandit of the hobbit present we get to see other items above and below, but these are still mostly secondary items and never BiS gear or at least not Best in slot that our gameplay could possibly get. Added to this is the ever changing loot table, all additions or some subtractions too? We just don't know. We could be opening boxes endlessly and the item we really want isn't in the loot table any more. Perhaps loot table is now an inappropriate word and we should be referring to it as the loot algorithm.

I'll maybe wait 'til I see people mentioning lousy drops then open a few boxes myself.

We shall either get a denial from SSG if not the case or another multipage thread and no engagement with the players if their position is untenable. And the SSG defenders will be let loose.

Mac

[Lord.Funk]

I would be more interested to know how many hours of play per key drop (outside of any re-playable content such as raids).

I havent had a single key, other than as a quest reward, in many months.

I think You're confusing the different "Keys" and "Lootboxes". Black Steel keys for the new Gorgoroth Lootboxes does NOT "drop" in-game at all from mobs and such (to my knowledge). They are only from a few limited deeds (or was it quests), that You can do once on a character (if I remember correctly). Then there are slivers that You get as rewards for allegiance daily quests (that You basically have to play through almost all quests in mordor as well as alot of deeds to unlock) and now also rarely and randomly from FI at LvL 115 (which can be ran once/day). 3 of those slivers together can be bartered for 1 account bound Black Steel Key. Other than they are only available in store. The Gorgoroth Lootboxes drops like crazy though when playing 106+ content but never the keys. Those are the new Lootboxes all controversy surrounds.

The older lootboxes known as Steel-bound Lootbox like Bronze-bound Lootbox, Barrow-ironbound Lootbox, Gold-bound Lootbox ranging up to Anórien Iron-bound Lootbox, are the old style of lootboxes and uses Sturdy Steel Key to be opened. Those are the keys that can randomly drop anywhere in the game, even from mobs in some instances that normally have no loot table and normally drop no other items. The chance is small but they do drop. I got one the other day if I remember correctly. Those lootboxes also drops randomly from mobs depending in the level content You play. Some deeds as well. Those keys can also be bought in store but also bartered from for example the Treassure Hunt event. Those are NOT the boxes all the controversy surrounds. They drop mostly convenience items like boosters, pick a mount box, some stat tomes and crystals and stuff.

Mainly the controversy is that the new Gorgoroth Lootboxes both use gambling mechanics (similar to slot machines, like all lootboxes in games do basically, even the old lootboxes acctually used that mechanic) but also that these new lootboxes contains very necessary items like ash (that is used to barter for end-game gear). Making the keys more sought after. Even gear pieces and end-game essences etc which are needed for end-game content. Items that have been made harder, gated and rarer to achieve from acctual game-play. The latest update removed one type of Black Steel Keys, which were unbound, that You could get from dailes now to only be from the sliver rewards and thus all of those are now account bound. Also gear that can be turned into ash was removed from all landscape mob drops as well as all instance mobs except a very few instances in Mordor (before they could drop from landscape mobs as well as in instance mobs on LvL 106+ instances, classic instances too). On top of that those few Mordor instances also changed to have a 1-day lock on the chests, so even harder and more gated now to get that gear that can be turned into ash. Encouraging people to buy Black Steel Keys for these Lootboxes in store. It's alot easier and faster to gain ash and gear by opening those Gorgoroth Lootboxes than acctually playing in-game content. This is why some even call it pay to win. Buy alot of keys and get almost the best items in game.

The store versions of the Black Steel Keys can still be traded by mailing using Mithril Coins, which also seem to have fuelled gold spammers to buy those keys for LoTRO Points they grind and then sell the keys for gold that they then can sell for real money, just like they've been doing with Universal Solvents. In fact lately gold sellers advertise that they even sell those keys and valars directly for real money in world chat.

The content in these new Gorgoroth Lootboxes are much more sought after and much more needed, than items from the old Steel-Bound Lootboxes, and the new keys rarer to find in game than the old keys and thus encouraging store purchases.

I hope that clears up any confusion.

[Yarbro]

I think You're confusing the different "Keys" and "Lootboxes". Black Steel keys for the new Gorgoroth Lootboxes does NOT "drop" in-game at all from mobs and such (to my knowledge). They are only from a few limited deeds (or was it quests), that You can do once on a character (if I remember correctly). Then there are slivers that You get as rewards for allegiance daily quests (that You basically have to play through almost all quests in mordor as well as alot of deeds to unlock) and now also rarely and randomly from FI at LvL 115 (which can be ran once/day). 3 of those slivers together can be bartered for 1 account bound Black Steel Key. Other than they are only available in store. The Gorgoroth Lootboxes drops like crazy though when playing 106+ content but never the keys. Those are the new Lootboxes all controversy surrounds.

The older lootboxes known as Steel-bound Lootbox like Bronze-bound Lootbox, Barrow-ironbound Lootbox, Gold-bound Lootbox ranging up to Anórien Iron-bound Lootbox, are the old style of lootboxes and uses Sturdy Steel Key to be opened. Those are the keys that can randomly drop anywhere in the game, even from mobs in some instances that normally have no loot table and normally drop no other items. The chance is small but they do drop. I got one the other day if I remember correctly. Those lootboxes also drops randomly from mobs depending in the level content You play. Some deeds as well. Those keys can also be bought in store but also bartered from for example the Treassure Hunt event. Those are NOT the boxes all the controversy surrounds. They drop mostly convenience items like boosters, pick a mount box, some stat tomes and crystals and stuff.

Mainly the controversy is that the new Gorgoroth Lootboxes both use gambling mechanics (similar to slot machines, like all lootboxes in games do basically, even the old lootboxes acctually used that mechanic) but also that these new lootboxes contains very necessary items like ash (that is used to barter for end-game gear). Making the keys more sought after. Even gear pieces and end-game essences etc which are needed for end-game content. Items that have been made harder, gated and rarer to achieve from acctual game-play. The latest update removed one type of Black Steel Keys, which were unbound, that You could get from dailes now to only be from the sliver rewards and thus all of those are now account bound. Also gear that can be turned into ash was removed from all landscape mob drops as well as all instance mobs except a very few instances in Mordor (before they could drop from landscape mobs as well as in instance mobs on LvL 106+ instances, classic instances too). On top of that those few Mordor instances also changed to have a 1-day lock on the chests, so even harder and more gated now to get that gear that can be turned into ash. Encouraging people to buy Black Steel Keys for these Lootboxes in store. It's alot easier and faster to gain ash and gear by opening those Gorgoroth Lootboxes than acctually playing in-game content. This is why some even call it pay to win. Buy alot of keys and get almost the best items in game.

The store versions of the Black Steel Keys can still be traded by mailing using Mithril Coins, which also seem to have fuelled gold spammers to buy those keys for LoTRO Points they grind and then sell the keys for gold that they then can sell for real money, just like they've been doing with Universal Solvents. In fact lately gold sellers advertise that they even sell those keys and valars directly for real money in world chat.

The content in these new Gorgoroth Lootboxes are much more sought after and much more needed, than items from the old Steel-Bound Lootboxes, and the new keys rarer to find in game than the old keys and thus encouraging store purchases.

I hope that clears up any confusion.

Sorry, I should have said steel keys; I dont do end game, and havent had a steel key in months; I used to keep a supply of dropped keys and award my alts a couple of loot boxes every time they went up to the next loot box level; but I am down to my last 4 keys, with no new keys appearing.

Since the boxfest, where lootboxes were almost dropping out of the sky, I rarely see a key dropped, Probably no more than 2 drops since then, and I play for at least a couple of hours 5-6 days per week. Am I just unlucky? Or have they altered the rate at which they drop??

[Macdui]

Or have they altered the rate at which they drop??

We just don't know, and as Cordovan mentioned they don't want to tell us, also they refuse to tell us what we might find in a given loot box.

SSG have thought the "surprise" of opening a loot box was a good thing, players like that discovery moment. As a player it was just another in a long list of annoyances, but not so much of a deal as they were drops of far lesser import than they are now at the cap.

You might think this is rather unfair.

Mac

[Lord.Funk]

Sorry, I should have said steel keys; I dont do end game, and havent had a steel key in months; I used to keep a supply of dropped keys and award my alts a couple of loot boxes every time they went up to the next loot box level; but I am down to my last 4 keys, with no new keys appearing.

Since the boxfest, where lootboxes were almost dropping out of the sky, I rarely see a key dropped, Probably no more than 2 drops since then, and I play for at least a couple of hours 5-6 days per week. Am I just unlucky? Or have they altered the rate at which they drop??

They don't drop often that's for sure. But as I said I think I got one the other day, so I guess they still drop. Never bothered much with them anyway. Not much I want from those boxes. Even the pick a mount box doesn't even offer all in-game mounts but just a limited selection. Considering those keys still sell for about 20-40 gold while the end-game Black Steel keys sell for 350-400 gold I guess it's easy to see that people want the Black Steel Keys more. If You look at store prices the old style keys are cheaper too. So not as highly valued.

Also as Macdui said, that is the whole thing with not publishing any loot table lists or the drop chance. We don't know and a company can change the drop rate at their will and we have no way of telling. I think that was the point OP tried to make.

In fact even with published lists we still wouldn't be 100% sure, unless it was regulated with outside unannounced controls to check so the system isn't rigged. That is why gambling, casinos and lotteries are regulated and operates under gambling licenses with regular controls. For some strange reason the gaming industry gets away with this and manage to bypass all of that and we the gamers/customers are left in the dark as a result. Also as Macdui said with virtual gambling and algortithms it's not even as simple as % chance to drops, as they can be written for example to have less chance to drope the things Your class need, or higher chance. It can be set to see how many items of a certain set "value" have dropped recently on the server and then diminish the chance for x amount of time etc. The algorithms can be set to almost anything. We have no way of knowing if they are or not. It's why laws need to catch up and be changed to include these things under gambling. Right now it's the wild west.

[Maximilan]

Sorry, I should have said steel keys; I dont do end game, and havent had a steel key in months; I used to keep a supply of dropped keys and award my alts a couple of loot boxes every time they went up to the next loot box level; but I am down to my last 4 keys, with no new keys appearing.

Since the boxfest, where lootboxes were almost dropping out of the sky, I rarely see a key dropped, Probably no more than 2 drops since then, and I play for at least a couple of hours 5-6 days per week. Am I just unlucky? Or have they altered the rate at which they drop??

Exactly - my experience has been the same. They changed the drop rate for steel keys this past year and others commented at the time saying - either they were unlucky or the key drops have been reduced. Either we are all unlucky or they changed them ...... I obviously think they changed the rate.

It's not so much a loot box thing as it is a loot thing: We've never really given exact drop rates for items that have a chance to appear, regardless of their source.

And Cord replied to the OP's issue of BiS or equivalent drops and of course they aren't going to tell us the probability of getting that BiS armor or whatever. But they also don't tell us the probability of obtaining a steel key either. Yes it's 100% if you buy it at the AH or store!

What has not been mentioned is the drop rate for the lootboxes. They increased the lootbox drop rate and reduced the steel key rate - no I can't prove it and no one can prove the opposite either (only SSG knows). So now the disparity between keys/lootboxes is much greater. Has the steel key price in the AH dropped significantly over the past year? I hadn't noticed much change but I don't buy keys. The price gives us a window into supply and demand, clearly the demand for black steel keys is much greater and/or the supply is limited which is why the high price (10x steel key). The demand for steel keys has dropped dramatically and you would expect a drop in price unless the supply is reduced too!

Of course we will never likely know what they change exactly, but we get a clue from our own experience and seeing the results from others reflected in AH pricing.