Ohh yeah, on that first part I agree. Its a rough guide, not an absolute holy text of how things will be set up.
As for Umbar itself, even if we get a Gorgorth sized expansion landmass, which was pretty sizeable in itself, I think we'll really only get something around the size of what I circled below. The city itself sitting on the back of the bay, with a 3-4 smaller towns/forts akin to the size of the larger Gorgorth forts on either side of the interior of the bay as logical "defenses" for the city. The bay itself basically being a "Mount Doom" empty space filler for the map like Gorgoroth had. The area he highlighted is nearly twice as large as Swanfleet and Cardolan combined, and those really got released at that size due to those areas/content being very spread out. I would expect Umbar to be more content dense owing to it being a large fort city with some serious ship building industry.
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