On the matter of the Advanced single-target rotation
Grouping with other RK's:
There can only be one Searing Words per tier no matter how many runekeepers there are. That alone makes this rotation less useful.
Another problem is that you can't know for sure anymore which tiers of Searing Words are active, unless:
A) they rush to t3 Writ. But they might proc random tiers on the way.
B) all runekeepers are in sync, upgrading the Writ tier everytime Searing Words procs
C) you mouse over all the dots. Can be tricky in large groups because they move a lot.
D) there's a plugin which can keep track of all dots from all players on a target. I'd appreciate suggestions if anyone knows one.
I'd just use the conventional rotation whenever there are other RK's. On average it's not very far behind the advanced rotation even as the only runekeeper.
Notes on the rotation:
- Starts with Distracting Flame. Essential to get mitigation debuffs before the big initial hits of Essay + Essence and also slightly buffs their damage, so this just about compensates for the shorter Essay of Fire. Also gives captains and debuffers more time.
- Essay + Essence at the start, mainly for attunement. Essay + Ridicule is on average slightly more damaging, but if the mit debuff procs after Essay (50% of the time) they're even.
Notes on the guidelines
- How long to wait with Writs?
Searing Words does the equivalent of 21000 tooltip damage in Osgiliath (post #47). Proc chance per skill is 20% which is 13% more than the 7% you'd get if the skill had been used after t3. So you gain 2730 damage per skill that you wait.
Every Writ which gets replaced by Fiery Ridicule is a loss of 2000 damage in initial hit dps and mit debuff uptime (post #47). For t1 you also have to take the dot into account, about 3000 tooltip damage per tick. (Writ tiers/Searing Words tiers only make a 7%/4% difference so I'm treating them all the same)
For t1 you could wait 20s and cut 4 Writs out of your rotation which would be a loss of 23000 damage. In that time you use 8 fire skills which are a gain of 21800 damage. So the average damage from Searing Words keeps up with Writ's dot, but Searing Words has higher max dps when there are lucky procs. So it's better to wait until Searing Words procs before using the first Writ. (equal average dps, higher max dps)
For t2 and t3 you can cut 10 Writs per tier out of your rotation which would be a loss of 20000 damage. This takes at least 40s, enough time for 16 fire skills which are worth 43700 damage in Searing Words. So delaying t2 and t3 is always worth it.
There is no cut-off point where you should use a Writ to 'cut your losses'. If Searing Words didn't proc after some time, the odds are still the same as before: the next 10 Writs or the next 4 Writs + 20s of dot damage vs the damage you get for proccing Searing Words. RNG doesn't care about the past.
- Would it be a good idea to let Writs tier down?
Not at all because you'd have to stop using Writs for a long time: both in the 28s it takes to tier down and then when trying to proc Searing Words. One Searing Words is worth 21000 damage while already 28s worth of Writs (~8) are worth 16000 damage in initial hits and procs.
Ofc if you have to stop attacking anyway it's an advantage when the Writ tier decreases on its own.
- How long does Searing Words take to proc?
1 fire skill -> combined proc chance is 20%
2 -> 36%
3 -> 49%
4 -> 59%
5 -> 67%
6 -> 74%
7 -> 79%
8 -> 83%
9 -> 87% etc., 1 - (0.8 to the power of skill #)
Half of all procs happen within 3 skills (the median).
The average is 5 skills, based on 20% proc chance.
This rotation uses a skill every 2.5s, so it takes on avg. 37.5s to reach t3 of Writ.
- Fiery Ridicule or Distracting Flame to proc Searing Words?
Distracting Flame does no damage but can get you to t3 faster so that you can start Writ-spam earlier. The below assumes you use nothing but Fiery Ridicule or Distracting Flame to reach t3.
Time difference:
Fiery Ridicule can be used every ~2.5s. At 20% proc chance it takes on average 12.5s per tier.
Distracting Flame can be used every ~1.5s. At 20% proc chance it takes on average 7.5s per tier, saving 15s in total.
Damage difference:
Each Distracting Flame loses 3000 damage compared to if the time was used for Fiery Ridicule. You need to use on avg 15 fire skills to reach t3, so the damage difference is 45000.
Comparison:
- If Distracting Flame reached t3 15s earlier it would lose 45000 damage to Fiery Ridicule.
- Each Writ that replaces Fiery Ridicule is worth 2000 damage in initial hits and +uptime for mit debuff/Searing Words.
- So you'd have to use 23 Writs in 15s of a normal rotation to make up for the damage lost by Distracting Flame.
- But you can only use around 4 Writs in that time, so Distracting Flame fails to recover most of the damage it loses to Fiery Ridicule.
Therefore, if time allows, use Fiery Ridicule instead of Distracting Flame for proccing Searing Words.