Originally Posted by
thinx
Others (including me) get something out of almost every chest (crafting components are only ~30% though). So if the chance of getting something seems to be >90%, getting nothing 3 times in a row seems more buggy than likely.
And IF the chance of getting *nothing* out of T2 exists, it should be eliminated. We should not go as far to say that the "only true way of playing the game" is T3. T2 takes sufficient time to justify a reward. Please note the use of the word "time".
No. These are Bernouilli trials. For a drop rate of 90%, that means 9 ways to succeed and one to fail out of ten, on average; given a large number of trials. So, do *not* forget the variance. Even with a 1% success rate, you can have a long string of successes. Very rare; but given enough trials, there will be at least one who will see it happen. The same in reverse. Given a 99% success rate, and enough trials, there will be at least one who will see a long string of failures. "Long" still has to be defined . There are ways to put bounds on the actual rate given a sample rate; but, even there, uncertainty is still present; unless there is given/shown evidence specifying what that rate is, in actuality. I've always gotten something from every chest. What that something ends up being varies. Some will call it 'nothing' because they can; and primarily, to me, because they don't see any utility. That's okay, as long as folk remember that others can, and will, disagree with them about said utility.
"No sadder words of tongue or pen are the words: 'Might have been'." -- John Greenleaf Whittier
"Do or do not. There is no try." -- Yoda
On planet Earth, there is a try.
Indeed, in a world and life full of change, the only constant is human nature (A is A, after all :P).
We old vets need to keep in mind those who come after us.