In my email inbox: "Echoes of the Dead Coming Soon!" Let's look to the Soon Meter...

[Arenhil1]

Is it me or is Dark Helmet talking into an iPhone around :23 seconds in?

Nice catch! Which can only mean that "Spaceballs" was Steve Jobs' inspiration. To slightly misquote Homer: "Mel Brooks, is there anything he can't do?"

[Rouven]

Is it me or is Dark Helmet talking into an iPhone around :23 seconds in?

Considering the movie was done (or came out) in 1987 ...
It was actually a Star Trek communicator, but let's not go into details as to why

Unless you were referring to the iPhone still being around in a few thousand years...

Or did it take them 20 years to develop the iPhone? *ponders*

Edit: It's a trap! Sapience is trying to prevent us from unravelling the mysteries of soon! Which means we must be close ...

[SapienChavez]

is that link to the blog supposed to be funny?

as a paying customer, i find it insulting.



and after reading the email... are we really going after the SAME bosses? Ivar, Thadur, and Fend-whatever... ive killed them all countless times. ill have to see how the story plays out, but at first glance, thats kinda weak!

[macdadg]

Methinks we need to parse the entire title in more detail, since there is no such definition for "Soon!" As we do this a number of puzzles arise...

+ How does the modifier of "Coming" affect the "Soon!" anomaly? Does it soften or strengthen the period of time that "Soon!" potentially refers to?

+ As previously noted, it's the "Dead" that are "Coming Soon!" and the concept of time in the netherworld may be non-linear or indefinite - if time exists at all.

+ Throw in that it's not actually "the Dead" "Coming Soon" but "Echoes" of the "Dead" and now we are dealing with some abstract representation of "the Dead" arriving at some appointed time that is indefinite due to the lack of understanding of when "Soon!" could possibly occur!

(... and yes, my logic is somewhat dizzying - but I'm only GETTING STARTED!)

So...

If we take the entire phrase into consideration, then we are referring to some hazy possibly non-existent time that may be even farther out than we expect, assuming that "Coming" has a negative impact to "Soon!"

(... I think...)

Ahh, but "Echoes" indicate sound so we need to consider the doppler effect. I.E. The closer Soon! comes the higher it will be in pitch. So natural progression leads Soon! to SOon! to SOOn! to SOON!.

[Laire]

Sapience: Do not try and bend the soon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.
Laire: What truth?
Sapience: There is no soon.
Laire: There is no soon?
Sapience: Then you'll see, that it is not the soon that bends, it is only yourself.

Making me burst out laughing in the library is not a good thing :P

[Sapience]

An echo is a repeating of an event that has already happened. Thus any consideration of the echo is done from a point even further removed from the initial event. In these circumstances Addendum B: Backwards Causality applies.

[EtherDragon]

An echo is a repeating of an event that has already happened. Thus any consideration of the echo is done from a point even further removed from the initial event. In these circumstances Addendum B: Backwards Causality applies.

Unless you consider the effect of mathematical space/time asymetry. Mathematically, any process that can be done, should also be able to be undone - but research has proven this isn't the case. (Ever try to un-dilute blue dye?)

In order for space/time asymetry to be possible (so it's said) it must be possible for effect to preceed cause. Hence - the effect (this thread) preceeds the cause (the update, or in sapience's case, the update about the update).

Consider: It's because of space/time asymetry that we can't remember the future nearly as accurately as we can predict the past.

So, back on topic-ish, we have-will posting-ed the thread because the update will-became released-ing.

[Celebrawn]

It's being shown at PAX in the middle of March, so I'm guessing March 31 at 11:59 PM.

[Domineaux]

I would think early March would be a good target for Turbine so as to have it out ahead of Spring Break for most people.

[JasonEvan]

March 3rd is my guess. Don't let me down Sapience.

[Maxal]

Well since they just added the Spalsh screen this week i would nromally guess March 8th or at least that week. That would be two weeks from the screen being intorduced. But since that is also PAX East and Turbine may not wish to have a good number of Dev members gone from the office on launch.....

I am leaning towards the week after that. So assuming a Tuesday launch, my WAG is March 15th.

[SapienChavez]

An echo is a repeating of an event that has already happened. Thus any consideration of the echo is done from a point even further removed from the initial event. In these circumstances Addendum B: Backwards Causality applies.

ok, you got me. that was a good one

and i "get" the name of the update now. thanks!

[Gandolf_TheOld]

I am leaning towards the week after that. So assuming a Tuesday launch, my WAG is March 15th.

NO!


Hide the knives and swords, don't go to the Senate and DO NOT talk to long time friends.


Not the Ides of March....

[BellusDuFenna]

As much as I like the light-heartedness of this thread thus far, I think I might just be required to be a bit of a "wet blanket" here, although I prefer the term "Messenger of Reason". This could be for good or for ill, depending on your opinion of what I have to say.

This email came from Marketing, as Sapience implied previously, which tells me one thing above all else: Barring a major issue arising on Bullroarer, the release date is now a known thing to Turbine. Obviously, they won't tell us what that is yet, because if a major problem arises which necessitates pushing that date back, there would be hell to pay from much of the forum community. I believe that this also tells us that the vast majority of Update 2 is finalized, with only minor bugfixes and polish to be done between now and the release date... again, barring a major problem arising with the content update.

Next, and in my opinion, more importantly, i think this means the release of Update 2 will occur in the next two weeks. March 1st is possible, but if I had to guess, I'd say March 8th is much more likely. Why so soon, though? Because Marketing knows that they don't want to start hyping Update 2 too soon, or it loses much of its drawing power. Three to four weeks from now, people won't be thinking about that email anymore, and any in-game ads for the update will be ignored, as we'll all be quite used to them by then. Also, in previous experience, similar emails for previous updates have gone out no more than two weeks in advance, as far as I recall.

Now, one could argue that both 3/1/2011 and 3/8/2011 are good launch dates for Update 2. The former may have people claiming it is coming "too soon", but it also would be able to take a slight amount of thunder away from a new MMO (which I shall not name) that is launching that day. The latter date is better in my opinion, though, since it doesn't directly compete with that game launch and will have the benefit of seeming less rushed, even though it is only an extra week.

Also remember that Kate Paiz in her last Producer's Letter described the content update after Update 2 by the name "The Anniversary Update", which means late April to early May release. That puts Turbine under the gun time-wise, just a bit. They've been averaging 3 months or so between updates since we went Free-to-Play, so pulling off another content update so soon will be tricky, and every week that goes by makes it even more difficult to do. They have about 10 weeks right now, if Update 2 were out today.

Perhaps Kate did the Devs a bit of a disservice by indirectly pinning a release window on Update 3 by calling an Anniversary Update, or maybe it is already planned to be rather light on content, so it will necessitate much less testing before launch? We can only speculate on that right now. But if Turbine is going to keep up the schedule their Executive producer outlined just a few months back - which they have thus far kept to, mind you - getting Update 2 out sooner rather than later would definitely be a plus for them.

Regardless, expect it soon, perhaps sooner than many of you might wish.

Just saying.

Boy, was I wrong! With Update 2 coming out on March 21st (announced at PAX East), that leave Turbine just 5 weeks to get out the next update, if they are going to be able to keep it the Anniversary Update as Kate Paiz described it back in December. Keep in mind, she also said it would include another raid and more instances (look up her December producer's letter, if you don't believe me), so 5 weeks seems an unreachable goal at this point.

It would be nice if we could get a Turbinite to comment on this. Better yet, how about another Producer's Letter from Paiz, since we haven't seen one in four months?

[Sardonyx]

Boy, was I wrong! With Update 2 coming out on March 21st (announced at PAX East), that leave Turbine just 5 weeks to get out the next update, if they are going to be able to keep it the Anniversary Update as Kate Paiz described it back in December. Keep in mind, she also said it would include another raid and more instances (look up her December producer's letter, if you don't believe me), so 5 weeks seems an unreachable goal at this point.

It would be nice if we could get a Turbinite to comment on this. Better yet, how about another Producer's Letter from Paiz, since we haven't seen one in four months?

No one has said that the Anniversary Update has to come out on the game's anniversary.

[Solien]

Is it me or is Dark Helmet talking into an iPhone around :23 seconds in?

"When will 'then' be 'now'?"
"...soon."

[Banaticus]

I think somewhere around March Eleventy-first would be a highly accurate theorized date.

eighty-first is 81. ninety-first is 91. Thus, eleventy-first is 111.

March has 31 days.
April has 30 days.
May has 31 days.
Thus, the 111 day in March is (111-31-30-31=19) also know as the 19th of June.

Thus, March Eleventy-first is the 19th of June and we can expect the Echoes of the Dead update on or before that date.

Since I hear it's actually coming out on the 21st of March, I think the Eleventy-first of March is going to be a really, really easy target to hit. This tells us something important. "Soon!" apparently means "roughly a month from the time of posting and way earlier than you'd otherwise expect".

Consider: It's because of space/time asymetry that we can't remember the future nearly as accurately as we can predict the past.

I don't know about you, but I remember the future. You still owe me for that $20 I'm going to loan you.

[BellusDuFenna]

No one has said that the Anniversary Update has to come out on the game's anniversary.

Historically, the Anniversary celebrations have started in late April to early May. It is reasonable to assume an "Anniversary Update" (Kate Paiz' description, not mine) would also come out in the same timeline.