Update 9 Loot

[bastiat1]

Maybe I can help a bit with a different perspective. For me, a fully random system is always fair. You put in X amount of time, you have Y chance of reward.

I agree it's completely "fair" the question I have is whether the drop chance is appropriate to encourage gameplay. In other words, is the time worth the reward? With a 1% drop rate you would have to open 458 chests to be 99% confident that you would win the piece. You would have to open 69 chests to just have a 50/50 chance of winning. Is a 35 hour investment worth a 50/50 chance at an upgrade?

Chests Required = ln(1 - Confidence) / ln(1 - Drop Rate)

To me, realizing the drop chance is 1% was demotivating, and I suspect it will discourage gameplay for others as well. People on these forums attacked the content really aggressively to get the epics and even some incomparables, but they did so not knowing the drop rate. As data has come in and the drop chance become transparent I suspect the very low rate will discourage rather than encourage play.

[cdq1958]

I agree it's completely "fair" the question I have is whether the drop chance is appropriate to encourage gameplay. In other words, is the time worth the reward? With a 1% drop rate you would have to open 458 chests to be 99% confident that you would win the piece. You would have to open 69 chests to just have a 50/50 chance of winning. Is a 35 hour investment worth a 50/50 chance at an upgrade?

Chests Required = ln(1 - Confidence) / ln(1 - Drop Rate)

To me, realizing the drop chance is 1% was demotivating, and I suspect it will discourage gameplay for others as well. People on these forums attacked the content really aggressively to get the epics and even some incomparables, but they did so not knowing the drop rate. As data has come in and the drop chance become transparent I suspect the very low rate will discourage rather than encourage play.

Yes, agreed. I came up with some rough order of magnitude estimate of the drop rate of any one legendary book page. It is somewhere in the order of 2%, so that last page can take a very long time to get, and be frustrating to kill all of those mobs to get it. It could, though, be as bad as 0.5% or even 0.1% for some of the really rare items. That said, RockX is trying to get things smoothed out. How successful the effort will be remains to be seen.

I'd like to know whether people would mind the 35 hrs for a fully equal opportunity, though random, drop system or would they mind the 35 hours just to get a piece via barter tokens.

[floreane]

Yes, agreed. I came up with some rough order of magnitude estimate of the drop rate of any one legendary book page. It is somewhere in the order of 2%, so that last page can take a very long time to get, and be frustrating to kill all of those mobs to get it. It could, though, be as bad as 0.5% or even 0.1% for some of the really rare items. That said, RockX is trying to get things smoothed out. How successful the effort will be remains to be seen.

I'd like to know whether people would mind the 35 hrs for a fully equal opportunity, though random, drop system or would they mind the 35 hours just to get a piece via barter tokens.

I also agree with this and bastiat's answer.

Maybe the word 'unfair' was incorrect for a loot system based on randomness, because technically even with a drop rate of 0.00001%, probabilities would still be fair. However, in the reality of the game now, I still think this in clearly unfair, or at least much more unfair than a loot system based on tokens. Why ? because with drop rates so low, you will always have a large number of peoples who get nothing, even when farming some instance, and that's terribly *unfair* for them. I agree that with tokens, over 100 casuals you won't have 1% of them getting an object. But with randomness, that's a lot more peoples who do play the instances a lot who get *nothing*...

So, tokens would still be very beneficial I think. There is currently 'Chinese farming of Durchest', as peoples say, i.e. pick-up groups who will loop on Durchest 10 times in the evening, so even with tokens a casual player can still get a legendary item. And for just everybody, knowing that each time you do an instance you get a 'piece' of the final reward for *sure* would lift part of the current frustration. Simply because you see the path, even if it's long.

I'm also starting to think that tokens would be more beneficial for casual or semi-casual than others. Because non-casual peoples who kill Durchest 350 times (for each character maybe) anyway will get their rewards whatever the loot system is, because the number of times you open the chest is huge. However, casual or semi-casual peoples for who killing Durchest 100 times with one character is already a big effort would be very happy to *know* that after doing this effort they would *all* get their legendary reward for sure. Also, when thinking about the 1% of casual peoples who currently can be lucky to loot a legendary item rapidly, we must not forget about the 99% of others who will therefore have to kill Durchest *more* than 100 times in average !

Well, and also naturally the drop rate (or number of tokens you get) should be lifted a bit, because 1% that's really too low.

[cdq1958]

I also agree with this and bastiat's answer.

Maybe the word 'unfair' was incorrect for a loot system based on randomness, because technically even with a drop rate of 0.00001%, probabilities would still be fair. However, in the reality of the game now, I still think this in clearly unfair, or at least much more unfair than a loot system based on tokens. Why ? because with drop rates so low, you will always have a large number of peoples who get nothing, even when farming some instance, and that's terribly *unfair* for them. I agree that with tokens, over 100 casuals you won't have 1% of them getting an object. But with randomness, that's a lot more peoples who do play the instances a lot who get *nothing*...

So, tokens would still be very beneficial I think. There is currently 'Chinese farming of Durchest', as peoples say, i.e. pick-up groups who will loop on Durchest 10 times in the evening, so even with tokens a casual player can still get a legendary item. And for just everybody, knowing that each time you do an instance you get a 'piece' of the final reward for *sure* would lift part of the current frustration. Simply because you see the path, even if it's long.

I'm also starting to think that tokens would be more beneficial for casual or semi-casual than others. Because non-casual peoples who kill Durchest 350 times (for each character maybe) anyway will get their rewards whatever the loot system is, because the number of times you open the chest is huge. However, casual or semi-casual peoples for who killing Durchest 100 times with one character is already a big effort would be very happy to *know* that after doing this effort they would *all* get their legendary reward for sure. Also, when thinking about the 1% of casual peoples who currently can be lucky to loot a legendary item rapidly, we must not forget about the 99% of others who will therefore have to kill Durchest *more* than 100 times in average !

Well, and also naturally the drop rate (or number of tokens you get) should be lifted a bit, because 1% that's really too low.

Interesting. One thing is certain, Durchest farming will end. This kind of thing can't last long. We've seen the Hytbold public instance dailies get abused. I have been here long enough to see the token pendulum swing both ways. Finding that sweet spot with respect to loot and rarity isn't easy. The token system, in and of itself, does not help casual players. The token system will require dedicating a significant block of time. Rarity by definition means 'low drop rate', for otherwise the item can't be rare. Oh well.

[floreane]

Interesting. One thing is certain, Durchest farming will end. This kind of thing can't last long. We've seen the Hytbold public instance dailies get abused. I have been here long enough to see the token pendulum swing both ways. Finding that sweet spot with respect to loot and rarity isn't easy. The token system, in and of itself, does not help casual players. The token system will require dedicating a significant block of time. Rarity by definition means 'low drop rate', for otherwise the item can't be rare. Oh well.

It would be very good if Durchest farming ends, but, it seems that this farming was the goal of Turbine when they have chosen not to lock the instance and rely on very very low drop rates for the best items. Also, as you says the token pendulum has swung both ways since Angmar. This situations certainly shows that *both* loots systems are asked by players, i.e. not just tokens, but also not just randomness. And I think we can easily conciliate both at low cost ! What if, at the *same time* :

a) Chests may drop all best items randomly as it is right now (but please not too low probability)
b) But if you do the effort to *finish* an instance, then you certainly validate some quest. Therefore, as a reward the quest itself should offer you either to chose directly *one* reward within the complete list of the best items you may have randomly looted on chests if you were lucky; or simply give you some tokens that you stack to get one of these at some NPC. T2 and T2+challenge may offer more tokens, and legendary-quality items may ask for much more than others (rarity).

Wouldn't it be great to have both at the same time ? This would motivate groups to finish instances, it would give a fixed, non-random, way of gaining the best items, while still preserving the opportunity for casuals to randomly loot something great anywhere.

[cdq1958]

It would be very good if Durchest farming ends, but, it seems that this farming was the goal of Turbine when they have chosen not to lock the instance and rely on very very low drop rates for the best items. Also, as you says the token pendulum has swung both ways since Angmar. This situations certainly shows that *both* loots systems are asked by players, i.e. not just tokens, but also not just randomness. And I think we can easily conciliate both at low cost ! What if, at the *same time* :

a) Chests may drop all best items randomly as it is right now (but please not too low probability)
b) But if you do the effort to *finish* an instance, then you certainly validate some quest. Therefore, as a reward the quest itself should offer you either to chose directly *one* reward within the complete list of the best items you may have randomly looted on chests if you were lucky; or simply give you some tokens that you stack to get one of these at some NPC. T2 and T2+challenge may offer more tokens, and legendary-quality items may ask for much more than others (rarity).

Wouldn't it be great to have both at the same time ? This would motivate groups to finish instances, it would give a fixed, non-random, way of gaining the best items, while still preserving the opportunity for casuals to randomly loot something great anywhere.

Yes, this would be nice. Whether something like this is doable and gets implemented is something else. The only thing I know is that 'Change, it's a comin' '.

[hurant]

It would be very good if Durchest farming ends, but, it seems that this farming was the goal of Turbine when they have chosen not to lock the instance and rely on very very low drop rates for the best items. Also, as you says the token pendulum has swung both ways since Angmar. This situations certainly shows that *both* loots systems are asked by players, i.e. not just tokens, but also not just randomness. And I think we can easily conciliate both at low cost ! What if, at the *same time* :

a) Chests may drop all best items randomly as it is right now (but please not too low probability)
b) But if you do the effort to *finish* an instance, then you certainly validate some quest. Therefore, as a reward the quest itself should offer you either to chose directly *one* reward within the complete list of the best items you may have randomly looted on chests if you were lucky; or simply give you some tokens that you stack to get one of these at some NPC. T2 and T2+challenge may offer more tokens, and legendary-quality items may ask for much more than others (rarity).

Wouldn't it be great to have both at the same time ? This would motivate groups to finish instances, it would give a fixed, non-random, way of gaining the best items, while still preserving the opportunity for casuals to randomly loot something great anywhere.

Great idea, an alternative progress-based way (e.g. tokens) to obtain those items would be great.
I would like to mention two FACTS that might be not obvious to some people unfamiliar with probability theory:

1.
No matter how large the chance of getting a random item is, there will be always a large group of people NEVER* getting an item.
(* By doing infinite (!) runs you would obtain this eventually, but here lets assume you can't do more than, say, 10 000 runs.)
Example:
Even if the chance of not getting an item after 10 000 runs is 0,1%, there will be 0,1% * lotro_population people never getting it.
The fact that x (e.g. 1000) people did not get they golden items after doing y (e.g. 10000) runs might be negligible, but this IS going to happen to some of us (only the numbers might be off).

2.
All the runs that did not award you anything DO NOT COUNT towards your chances.

It is true that doing a large number of runs improves your chances, but only at the start (you might get it after 1 or 2 runs, too). In other words, all the runs that did not award you anything are a total waste of time. They do not improve your chances of getting gold/teal loot.

A common misconception is that the more you try, the more you get.
Question: what is your chance of getting a head on a coin after getting only a tail 1000 times?
Answer: still 50%



---
To sum up, in my personal experience, PROGRESSING is what makes this game great, not playing a lottery.
The two times I was most excited at the prospect of getting loot was:
- getting enough seals for ToO armour (took several weeks)
- getting enough reputation through dailies to get LG set
The anticipation of getting good loot was making me much more happy than winning any lottery in this game.

I certainly would like to see a system in which each run gives you some "insurance" in case you won't win a golden item.
Let's say we need 100 tokens (1/run) and 10 000 medallions for a golden item, I'd still be happy to have that option.

[floreane]

Good explanation about the randomness, I perfectly agree. Unfortunately, the new update 9.1 corrected some probabilities but did not change this fundamental problem at all.

Personally, the more time passes, and the more upset I get about the current, fully random, way to equip characters in Lotro. An alternative way, totally non-random, is really a need I think, so that all those who plays many instances but had poor luck can spend their tokens to balance that fact.

It could be new tokens if Turbine do not wants us to use the ones we already have. But, since the tokens we have represents the time spent in instances, it would also be fair to spend them to buy at least *any* of the blue 85 objects that can drop randomly in chests. Or it could be new tokens at first, to preserve rarity for the moment, and later change these for normal tokens as we did previously for older tokens. Btw skirmish camps still have an NPC for changing tokens for others. Or it could be simply quite expensive for the moment, and cheaper later. But any way an alternative way to randomness is a need right now.

[floreane]

Since the last posts here are more a suggestion for Turbine, I made a copy of them in the Suggestion threads :
http://forums.lotro.com/showthread.p...ff-a-character.

[Acasta]

I guess you didn't notice that each mob drops about 100 silver... So one durchest run will get you about 2 gold and that is not even looking at the vendor trash you'll get.

You are right about the mobs that drop the added silver and after all that hell, you end up with 2 gold 221 silver, ha ha ha.

To be honest, I just want a way to save adventure points, tokens, whatever you want to call them and buy the item I agreed to go into the raid/skirm for in the first place, sure it may take several runs, but eventually you will certainly get it. The roll for a minimal chance, to me is simply not worth the effort.

When I look at the time and trashing you take in a raid and get nothing for your effort but chuncks of chump change and trash loot; which can easily and with much less time be overwhelmed by simply doing warbands, and other activities, with out the harrassment and risk of the actual raid failing and really getting nothing.

Unmentioned is that if the raid/skirm does get successfully completed, you do get nice qunatities of marks, medallions and seals for it. Of course warband hunting is also pretty good for gaining such goodies too, but you can only do them once a day.

I feel the fairest way is to give players a choice of how loot impacts them, they can go for the roll as is now, or chose to get credits towards what they want; these way either preference is satisfied without the expense of another player.


Sue